Arrogance, Ignorance and Nuclear Holocaust:
August 6, 1945. An American B 29 bomber took off from Tinian in the Mariana Islands (Philippines Sea); arrived over Hiroshima in Japan at 8:15 AM and dropped its load: Little Boy. The Little Boy, as it was named, was a Uranium "fission" bomb with an explosion rating of 15 kilotons of TNT. It killed 150,000 people, although it was considered "inefficient" since only 1.7% of its material fissioned. In other words, its potential devastation was fifty times greater. On August 9, another bomb, Fat Man was dropped on Nagasaki that killed 75,000 people. Six days later, on August 15, Japan surrendered.
In 1954 the U.S. tested a deliverable fusion (hydrogen) bomb with a yield of 15 megatons (a thousand times greater than the Hiroshima bomb). Since then all the major nuclear powers, which include Russia (former Soviet Union), China, Great Britain and France have progressed from fission to fusion nuclear weapons. The largest nuclear weapon last tested was by the former Soviet Union in October 1961. It was called Tsar Bomba, which had a yield of 50 megatons. The bomb was tested in Sukhoy Nos (dry nose) on Severny Island in the Arctic Ocean. The blast raised the mushroom cloud seven times above the height of Mount Everest and broke windows several hundred miles away in Norway and Sweden. The test proved that the yield and the destructive power of a hydrogen bomb had no limit and were restricted only by our ability to deliver the bomb over the enemy territory. So, it seems that you cannot kill the entire population of the world with one bomb alone because of the human beings' scatter over the globe but you can certainly do so, almost instantaneously, with several bombs targeting populated areas. The U.S.A. and Russia have enough bombs to kill all the human beings and the creatures that inhabit the earth, many times over and turn this planet into a spherical rock surrounded by dust.
Flashback: After knowing that Otto Hahn, in the Nazi Germany had succeeded in splitting the atom (fission), which was capable of releasing enormous amount of energy according to Einstein's famous energy-mass equation, emigre physicists in America such as Szilard, Wigner, Fermi and Teller realized the danger to the world if this process were to be weaponized by the Nazis. So they got Einstein, who was then living in New Jersey, to sign a letter to President Roosevelt, asking him to urgently initiate a nuclear weapons program. Thus, the Manhattan project came about under the leadership of Robert Oppenheimer, that culminated in the events mentioned above. It was ironic that in the aftermath of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the same scientists, who were beseeching Roosevelt to give them the bomb, now came out, looked up towards the skies and wondered: Oh God, what have we done!
The WW 2, for ever changed the dynamics of warfare. The nuclear Haves have never gone to war directly against each other since. Word War Three, although talked about often and made a subject of poetry all over the world, never happened, because the political and the military leaders could vividly imagine scenarios of doomsday if it did happen. A treaty, called the Nuclear Non proliferation Treaty, under the auspices of the United Nations, was signed by all the member nations save four: India, Pakistan, Israel and the Soviet Union.
Flashback: After knowing that Otto Hahn, in the Nazi Germany had succeeded in splitting the atom (fission), which was capable of releasing enormous amount of energy according to Einstein's famous energy-mass equation, emigre physicists in America such as Szilard, Wigner, Fermi and Teller realized the danger to the world if this process were to be weaponized by the Nazis. So they got Einstein, who was then living in New Jersey, to sign a letter to President Roosevelt, asking him to urgently initiate a nuclear weapons program. Thus, the Manhattan project came about under the leadership of Robert Oppenheimer, that culminated in the events mentioned above. It was ironic that in the aftermath of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the same scientists, who were beseeching Roosevelt to give them the bomb, now came out, looked up towards the skies and wondered: Oh God, what have we done!
The WW 2, for ever changed the dynamics of warfare. The nuclear Haves have never gone to war directly against each other since. Word War Three, although talked about often and made a subject of poetry all over the world, never happened, because the political and the military leaders could vividly imagine scenarios of doomsday if it did happen. A treaty, called the Nuclear Non proliferation Treaty, under the auspices of the United Nations, was signed by all the member nations save four: India, Pakistan, Israel and the Soviet Union.
Now, let us examine the possibility of large scale military conflicts in the world. NATO had come about to stop the prospective Soviet juggernaut rolling its tanks through the "Iron Curtain" in Europe. Well, the Juggernaut now has become a Have Not and is well contented and contained within its shrunk borders, passing time in cyber attacks, facilitate elections in foreign countries and bomb crowds in foreign lands such as Syria, who have no air defenses. The NATO, bored by the silence of guns in Central Europe, has flown off elsewhere.
However, there are two hot spots in the world where the demons of war are shrieking: the Middle East and South Asia. This! because of the perfidy of the U.N.O.,which shut its eyes to the purpose for which it had been created. Ominous for the world is the fact that these two hot spots are dotted with nuclear weapons and the world community, in suicidal irresponsibility, is looking the other way. With regard to the Middle East however, one may argue that the nuclear equation there is not balanced, reducing the possibility of a catastrophe happening. Israel has the bomb; others do not. The Arab rulers, completely defeated in spirit, have abandoned their original stance and left the Palestinian kids with rocks to throw at gun-wielding Israeli soldiers and strengthen their muscles. Arab nationalism and pan-Islamic revivalism have been relegated to history. Israel, through its supporters in the West, has the ability to sever the economic lifeline of any country that is thinking of acquiring nuclear capability. Monopoly of aggression is the hallmark of the Middle East now.
Things are however, a lot different in South Asia. As has been mentioned before, India, the country of Buddha, Gandhi and Nehru, a bastion of presumed non-violence, a focal point of transcendental meditation, the darling of the Liberals and the Left had not signed the Non-proliferation Treaty. Alarmed by the implications, Pakistan also did not sign. In 1954 Canada had supplied a research nuclear reactor to India called CIRUS (Canada India Research Utility Services), purely for research purposes. The reactor produces plutonium, a fissile material, which can be weaponized. India stockpiled the plutonium produced in the reactor and used it to make a bomb, which was tested in 1974 (Pokhran-1). The explosion was code named "Smiling Buddha" (you may smile too). The caption mocked the whole world for believing in the Buddhist-Gandhian non-violence "absurdity". This was a gotch-u moment for the world's foolishness. And who led the country through this spectacular "triumph"? Jawahar Lal Nehru's daughter: Indira Gandhi.
This alarmed Pakistan, which had suffered a monumental defeat in the 1971 war with India. It saw it as an existential threat. India has the second largest population in the world and is second behind China in terms of having the highest number of active military personnel. Therefore, in a conventional war, the Indian military would have the strength to easily overrun Pakistan, a country with far less resources and no strategic depth. Thus, spurred by Z.A. Bhutto, the then president, the country went into full gear to produce the nuclear deterrent, in order to neutralize India's enormous advantage in conventional military strength, "conventional asymmetry". This bore fruit. In 1998 both India and Pakistan tested their nuclear weapons and a new chapter in confrontational dynamics began.
The political and military leadership of India is bellicose and hellbent on trying to make the people of India believe that nothing has changed and in any conflict, India will come out unscathed and only Pakistan will be wiped out. Unfortunately, a lot of Indian people believe in this myth but science categorically refutes this fallacy. Let me give you some facts about Pakistan's nuclear strength. I am omitting the comparative data regarding India's strength, which is undoubtedly superior but the point is that once the enemy's deterrent has passed neutralization level, all excesses become superfluous and a burden, in so far as nuclear warfare is concerned.
Pakistan began its program by attacking on two fronts: uranium enrichment and breeding plutonium in nuclear reactors. Both are fissile materials but you need far less plutonium to get the same yield as from uranium and is therefore more amenable to miniaturization and delivery. Pakistan's breakthrough came with remarkable success in the acquisition, design and manufacturing of gas centrifuges to enrich uranium, at Kahuta, in which Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan had an important role to play. At Khushab, Pakistan has constructed several reactors and reprocessing plants to produce and extract plutonium. Each year that passes, adds to the country's nuclear capacity. it is estimated that by the year 2025, Pakistan may have about 250 bombs. Needless to say that it has already passed the deterrent level. It has several short range, medium and long range delivery systems. It also has second strike capability with its submarine launched nuclear missiles that can be used against India as well as Israel, in case it attacks Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
India's generals, while publicly hawking in vituperation, are well aware of the challenges and are not taking them sitting down. They came up with the "cold start" doctrine, which calls for proactive massive strike with Armour and infantry and rapidly occupy territory, before the enemy has time to react effectively. Pakistan's answer to this was the development of Tactical Nuclear Weapons, which could be delivered with her Nasr missiles in the battle field and wipe out the invading force, a last resort option.
Pakistan also has a number of MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles), the Ababeel cruise missiles. Each missile has a number of warheads, which scatter on reentry and go after different targets, making it very difficult, if not impossible, for any antimissile system to trace and shoot them down.
The most cataclysmic scenario of a war between India and Pakistan is that if India starts the war in a blitz creek in the terrain of the Five Rivers and from the desert of Rajasthan and proceeds as planned, quickly occupying territory, moving towards Lahore and Islamabad, which are at an earshot from the Indian border, what options will the Pakistanis have? They will have to quickly decide whether to go for the nuclear option or spare the world the radioactive cloud and capitulate. The world will want Pakistan to choose the latter and sue for peace. This will mean offering the country and its stockpile of nuclear weapons to Mr. Modi on a silver plate and award Hindutva (the Hindu nationalist view of the world) its goals. However, if Pakistan chooses the nuclear option then there is only one way it can go as any other way would be suicidal. It will have to launch a massive strike against a wide array of targets within the first few hours from the start of the war. There will be no war of attrition, no proportionality, no tank battles, no infantry movements, no air combats and no bomb for bomb exchange. What will happen next, I will leave it to the readers's imagination.
The root of the problem is Kashmir, a landscape in the foothills of the Himalayas, with stunning beauty, inhabited by over twelve million people, 76% of them Muslim (When the British left, 96% of kashmiris were Muslims). Pakistan was created on the basis of adjacent Muslim majority areas in the northwest and the northeast of the subcontinent joining in a federation, a principle agreed upon by all the parties. However, at the instance of Pandit Nehru the Hindu maharaja of Kashmir decided to merge Kashmir with India. India and Pakistan went to war against each other. Nehru took the dispute to the United Nations, where resolutions were passed to the effect that a plebiscite would be held to ascertain the will of the people. Nehru agreed at first but later went back on his promise. However, Kashmir remained a disputed territory and had a special status in India's constitution until now when Modi arbitrarily usurped it and wiped out its identity by dividing it into several parts. The people of Kashmir have risen in revolt and are being suppressed by overwhelming force. If there ever was any doubt that the Kashmiris wanted freedom from India's rule, it must disappear from our minds now.
How many times has the world to be reminded that crises brew and then explode due to the negligence of the world community, Rwanda for instance and now Syria? If East Timor and South Sudan, both Christian enclaves can be separated from Indonesia and Sudan, both Muslim countries, why not Kashmir? An independent Kashmir will be on top of the world economically because of its potential for tourism.
We like to think of India as a country of sages, philosophers, scientists, doctors, engineers and IT people. With thousands of colleges and universities, their prestigious IITs (Indian Institute of Technology), various laboratories under the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research and the venerated cultural organisations, India would be nothing but a beacon of light for the march into the future as science and technology its driving force. Sadly, with the advent of Hindutva, this image is being smeared. Together with the outgrowth of the minions of the media, the Hindu nationalists are driving the country from education to ignorance and from enlightenment to superstition. There is a glimmer of hope however, when renowned scientists and artists return their prestigious government titles in protest of what is happening in the country and the students of the Jawahar Lal Nehru University come out in revolt, in spite of the goons of the R.S.S. unleashed on them. The country must come out of this darkest period in history. In order for that to happen, the muted voices must become loud; the commercial media, which spreads poison for profits must be dealt with.
Waheeduddin Ahmed, Ph.D.
March 2020
However, there are two hot spots in the world where the demons of war are shrieking: the Middle East and South Asia. This! because of the perfidy of the U.N.O.,which shut its eyes to the purpose for which it had been created. Ominous for the world is the fact that these two hot spots are dotted with nuclear weapons and the world community, in suicidal irresponsibility, is looking the other way. With regard to the Middle East however, one may argue that the nuclear equation there is not balanced, reducing the possibility of a catastrophe happening. Israel has the bomb; others do not. The Arab rulers, completely defeated in spirit, have abandoned their original stance and left the Palestinian kids with rocks to throw at gun-wielding Israeli soldiers and strengthen their muscles. Arab nationalism and pan-Islamic revivalism have been relegated to history. Israel, through its supporters in the West, has the ability to sever the economic lifeline of any country that is thinking of acquiring nuclear capability. Monopoly of aggression is the hallmark of the Middle East now.
Things are however, a lot different in South Asia. As has been mentioned before, India, the country of Buddha, Gandhi and Nehru, a bastion of presumed non-violence, a focal point of transcendental meditation, the darling of the Liberals and the Left had not signed the Non-proliferation Treaty. Alarmed by the implications, Pakistan also did not sign. In 1954 Canada had supplied a research nuclear reactor to India called CIRUS (Canada India Research Utility Services), purely for research purposes. The reactor produces plutonium, a fissile material, which can be weaponized. India stockpiled the plutonium produced in the reactor and used it to make a bomb, which was tested in 1974 (Pokhran-1). The explosion was code named "Smiling Buddha" (you may smile too). The caption mocked the whole world for believing in the Buddhist-Gandhian non-violence "absurdity". This was a gotch-u moment for the world's foolishness. And who led the country through this spectacular "triumph"? Jawahar Lal Nehru's daughter: Indira Gandhi.
This alarmed Pakistan, which had suffered a monumental defeat in the 1971 war with India. It saw it as an existential threat. India has the second largest population in the world and is second behind China in terms of having the highest number of active military personnel. Therefore, in a conventional war, the Indian military would have the strength to easily overrun Pakistan, a country with far less resources and no strategic depth. Thus, spurred by Z.A. Bhutto, the then president, the country went into full gear to produce the nuclear deterrent, in order to neutralize India's enormous advantage in conventional military strength, "conventional asymmetry". This bore fruit. In 1998 both India and Pakistan tested their nuclear weapons and a new chapter in confrontational dynamics began.
The political and military leadership of India is bellicose and hellbent on trying to make the people of India believe that nothing has changed and in any conflict, India will come out unscathed and only Pakistan will be wiped out. Unfortunately, a lot of Indian people believe in this myth but science categorically refutes this fallacy. Let me give you some facts about Pakistan's nuclear strength. I am omitting the comparative data regarding India's strength, which is undoubtedly superior but the point is that once the enemy's deterrent has passed neutralization level, all excesses become superfluous and a burden, in so far as nuclear warfare is concerned.
Pakistan began its program by attacking on two fronts: uranium enrichment and breeding plutonium in nuclear reactors. Both are fissile materials but you need far less plutonium to get the same yield as from uranium and is therefore more amenable to miniaturization and delivery. Pakistan's breakthrough came with remarkable success in the acquisition, design and manufacturing of gas centrifuges to enrich uranium, at Kahuta, in which Dr. Abdul Qadeer Khan had an important role to play. At Khushab, Pakistan has constructed several reactors and reprocessing plants to produce and extract plutonium. Each year that passes, adds to the country's nuclear capacity. it is estimated that by the year 2025, Pakistan may have about 250 bombs. Needless to say that it has already passed the deterrent level. It has several short range, medium and long range delivery systems. It also has second strike capability with its submarine launched nuclear missiles that can be used against India as well as Israel, in case it attacks Pakistan's nuclear facilities.
India's generals, while publicly hawking in vituperation, are well aware of the challenges and are not taking them sitting down. They came up with the "cold start" doctrine, which calls for proactive massive strike with Armour and infantry and rapidly occupy territory, before the enemy has time to react effectively. Pakistan's answer to this was the development of Tactical Nuclear Weapons, which could be delivered with her Nasr missiles in the battle field and wipe out the invading force, a last resort option.
Pakistan also has a number of MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicles), the Ababeel cruise missiles. Each missile has a number of warheads, which scatter on reentry and go after different targets, making it very difficult, if not impossible, for any antimissile system to trace and shoot them down.
The most cataclysmic scenario of a war between India and Pakistan is that if India starts the war in a blitz creek in the terrain of the Five Rivers and from the desert of Rajasthan and proceeds as planned, quickly occupying territory, moving towards Lahore and Islamabad, which are at an earshot from the Indian border, what options will the Pakistanis have? They will have to quickly decide whether to go for the nuclear option or spare the world the radioactive cloud and capitulate. The world will want Pakistan to choose the latter and sue for peace. This will mean offering the country and its stockpile of nuclear weapons to Mr. Modi on a silver plate and award Hindutva (the Hindu nationalist view of the world) its goals. However, if Pakistan chooses the nuclear option then there is only one way it can go as any other way would be suicidal. It will have to launch a massive strike against a wide array of targets within the first few hours from the start of the war. There will be no war of attrition, no proportionality, no tank battles, no infantry movements, no air combats and no bomb for bomb exchange. What will happen next, I will leave it to the readers's imagination.
The root of the problem is Kashmir, a landscape in the foothills of the Himalayas, with stunning beauty, inhabited by over twelve million people, 76% of them Muslim (When the British left, 96% of kashmiris were Muslims). Pakistan was created on the basis of adjacent Muslim majority areas in the northwest and the northeast of the subcontinent joining in a federation, a principle agreed upon by all the parties. However, at the instance of Pandit Nehru the Hindu maharaja of Kashmir decided to merge Kashmir with India. India and Pakistan went to war against each other. Nehru took the dispute to the United Nations, where resolutions were passed to the effect that a plebiscite would be held to ascertain the will of the people. Nehru agreed at first but later went back on his promise. However, Kashmir remained a disputed territory and had a special status in India's constitution until now when Modi arbitrarily usurped it and wiped out its identity by dividing it into several parts. The people of Kashmir have risen in revolt and are being suppressed by overwhelming force. If there ever was any doubt that the Kashmiris wanted freedom from India's rule, it must disappear from our minds now.
How many times has the world to be reminded that crises brew and then explode due to the negligence of the world community, Rwanda for instance and now Syria? If East Timor and South Sudan, both Christian enclaves can be separated from Indonesia and Sudan, both Muslim countries, why not Kashmir? An independent Kashmir will be on top of the world economically because of its potential for tourism.
We like to think of India as a country of sages, philosophers, scientists, doctors, engineers and IT people. With thousands of colleges and universities, their prestigious IITs (Indian Institute of Technology), various laboratories under the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research and the venerated cultural organisations, India would be nothing but a beacon of light for the march into the future as science and technology its driving force. Sadly, with the advent of Hindutva, this image is being smeared. Together with the outgrowth of the minions of the media, the Hindu nationalists are driving the country from education to ignorance and from enlightenment to superstition. There is a glimmer of hope however, when renowned scientists and artists return their prestigious government titles in protest of what is happening in the country and the students of the Jawahar Lal Nehru University come out in revolt, in spite of the goons of the R.S.S. unleashed on them. The country must come out of this darkest period in history. In order for that to happen, the muted voices must become loud; the commercial media, which spreads poison for profits must be dealt with.
Waheeduddin Ahmed, Ph.D.
March 2020
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